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Why Intuition isn’t Enough

Comment: 0 July 27th, 2011 by: admin

The overused mantra ‘Trust your feelings’ may work in films, but not in sports betting. Depending solely to a hunch bet can strip you of your money.

A gut feel could steer you wrong because oftentimes, the strategy involves merely picking the supposedly superior side. While this is fine in casual betting, it will not do if money is involved.

Other reasons include:

• Sports betting is a science.

  Part-science, at least. Whether straight up or point spread, successful sport betting requires research, statistical analysis, and some number-crunching. Check each side’s overall and head-to-head records. Pore over team statistics. Do research on player strengths and weaknesses. Consider other determining factors like home court advantage, team roster (new acquisitions, benched players, etc.), even weather conditions. Your wager investment is worth the effort.

• Every second counts.

  Sports history is littered with stories of buzzer-beaters, ‘Hail Mary’ shots, own-goals, and penalty shootouts that overturn the most confident predictions. The fact is nothing is absolutely predictable. Investing in an unsubstantiated feeling that ignores probability for game changers is not wise.

• Bias clouds logic and costs money.

  At first glance, a side’s three-win streak ensures a victory against a side with four straight losses. Public opinion could support this claim. This, however, disregards head-to-head performance, and a (very) real possibility of an upset courtesy of the heavy underdog.

  Additionally, while underdog victories are not impossible, they are not commonplace. Bettors with the habit of constantly wagering in favour of the underdog should best go with logic and check the records.

• Intuition does not compute.

  The potential of a payoff heavily depends on a number system that discourages rash decisions. The widely-popular handicap system actively levels a seemingly one-sided match, and the presumptions that stem from the discrepancy.

  As a most basic example, a 2.5 underdog handicap renders a 3-1 win by the stronger, heavily-favoured side worthless. Learning the numerical machinations of sports betting increases the chances of beefing up your bankroll, instead of cleaning it out with imprudent wagers.